I have seen on TV that Timoshenko refuses to resign whatever office she holds.  Yanuchovich (?) has been elected president.   Timoshenko says his election is fraudulent and she cites the fact that he doesn't have a majority in the Ukrainian parlaiment to support his agenda.   My wife says the people of Ukraine voted for heat in their apartments and that's why Yanuchovich won.  This seems supported by the people we talk to on Skype. Most don't have heat for most of the day.

What's really going on?

Perhaps Kokosha should answer, but here is my breif take..

There are really 2 Ukraines - West and East/South, and depending on where your people are from that you talk to, you'll get a completely different take.  Both will tell you that their candidate is being elected for "standard of living" issues, such as heat in the apartments in your example, but I know very well that "heat in the apartments" has been unstable/unpredictable from the Soviet Union times when I lived there, and every single winter until today. (though, obviously a lot worse now). So I see these things as election populism of the type of issues that in reality simply will not be dealt with due to culture of corruption and mediocrity which transcends all possible political systems they try. Situation is made worse today, as countries like this get hit hardest in global economic recessions, and naturally, party in power will get the blame, and the other gets annoited as a savior by the moderate voters and is put in power.  Then the whole thing happens in reverse.  Not that different from what we do here with our two parties.

Beyond that, 80-90% of Western Ukrainians will always vote for Western-leaning candidates who want distance from Russia culturally and politically, want to join the EU and/or NATO for future protection from Russia, and the East/South (my hood ) will always vote for candidate supporting alliance or union with Russia (or at least very good relations), and supporting Russian as a a second official language (considering large cities in these areas are populated nearly 100% by people who prefer Russian as a first choice at home and at work). 

To illustrate my point about "2 Ukraines" and what REALLY is being voted on in these elections..  Keeping in mind that the standard of living is fairly equal in all corners of Ukraine, it becomes impossible to make the case that people are voting based on "heat in apartments", but the moderates (who decide all elections in most countries including the US) very well may be.

2007 election:

2010 election:

Ask! I'm ready to answer! I live in Kharkiv. I gave my voice to Timoshenko, my husband - to Yanukovich (it was a sort of family compromise;)

As for the heating, I live in ordinary for the most citisens house with central heating and we have no any problems this year at all (last year the heating season started a month later, and it was about 14C (heating off) - rather cool, but when the heating is on we have 23-25 C)

The main problem with Yanukovich is his criminal past. He was inprisoned twice: the first time for picking fur hats from people passing-by (in terms of my 6-year-old son (I can't imagine his first school year with the portrait of Yanukovich in class, and the ideas the teacher should give to the youngsters:) in this case)) and the second was the rape-try -saaad we have such president

As for pro-Russian ideas, I've felt them for the first time in Crimea last September: some people had the Russian flag fixed on their scooters and motorbikes , but at the same time, we were there for two weeks, and there were lots of people from Western Ukraine who spoke Ukrainian  (usually there more tourists from Russia and Belorus and the Russian language is heard much more often) 

Kokosha,

My wife's family lives in Chernivtsi.  My wife still has an apartment there.   They say there is much trouble with the heating.  Is it possible that the Russians are providing gas to the portion of Ukraine which wants closer ties to Russia with gas, but only sporadically providing gas to the more independent western part of Ukraine?   I could see that this would be a great strategy to divide the country of Ukraine.

My wife also told me of the criminal past of Yanukovich, especially about the attempted rape.  I am much troubled that a country is in such a state that a man with a criminal past could be elected president.   To me, there must be fraud involved.

Egor, thanks for the map, it was very interesting.    Kinda reminds me of the electoral map of the US with blue on both coasts and red down the middle and in the south.

In your opinions, is civil war a possibility in Ukraine, or perhaps a peaceful split of the country?   I read that the GDP of Ukraine declined 15% last year.    My God, the place must be destitute

What is going on?    Is corruption the only reason for this huge decline?

No, split will not happen. At least Russia is not interested in a development like that.

Russia really has no control over the pipelines once they cross the border, that's how Ukraine managed to steal it for decades.

Buying the NG at a market price would really resolve any  differences.

mkgilstrap:

Kokosha,

My wife's family lives in Chernivtsi.  My wife still has an apartment there.   They say there is much trouble with the heating.  Is it possible that the Russians are providing gas to the portion of Ukraine which wants closer ties to Russia with gas, but only sporadically providing gas to the more independent western part of Ukraine?   I could see that this would be a great strategy to divide the country of Ukraine.

I think here is the other business. Kharkiv is still rather big industrial center and much bigger city. So, the gas involvement in the industries may only influence... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernivtsi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv

mkgilstrap:

 wife also told me of the criminal past of Yanukovich, especially about the attempted rape.  I am much troubled that a country is in such a state that a man with a criminal past could be elected president.   To me, there must be fraud involved.

The very strange thing , in America also by the way: you were more ready to choose black man, than any woman^). Ukrainian variant: any man - not a woman 

mkgilstrap:

 your opinions, is civil war a possibility in Ukraine, or perhaps a peaceful split of the country?   I read that the GDP of Ukraine declined 15% last year.    My God, the place must be destitute

What is going on?    Is corruption the only reason for this huge decline?

Civil war - hope no, but the history says that it is one of the way outs from the deep crisis . peaceful split - may be... all the splits are usually made for small money - that can work with Ukrainians.

As for corruption, I'm sure you can't even imagine what it is, and it's really huge. It's not a cancer, it's organism itself. People are mostly poor, but it's normal for Ukrainian woman to buy shoes for $100, having the salary about $75 ;) Cause the salary and income are two different things. The husband of my friend once came home and said, giving her money, my dear wife, this month salary is given in office chairs by documents.... And also the quantity of expensive, really expensive cars in the streets is also huge - paradox

mkgilstrap:

What's really going on?

biomass has spoken.