Failure of the Orange Revolution is a historic opportunity

By Anatol Lieven Published: July 25 2006 03:00 | Last updated: July 25 2006 03:00 When, in 2004, the Orange "revolution" in Ukraine against a rigged presidential election seemed to put that country on the path to join the west, it was top news in the US media and the stuff of countless emotional commentaries. Many of them focused on the iniquity of Russia, which had backed the existing Ukrainian regime. Since then, the events of 2004 have proved to be no revolution at all, in the sense of a fundamental change in the Ukrainian state. The Orange coalition split, economic growth declined drastically, reform stagnated and, in free and fair parliamentary elections in March this year, the pro-Russian grouping led by the ousted candidate of 2004, Viktor Yanukovych, emerged as the largest party. After months of political chaos, including hooliganism by both sides in the Ukrainian parliament, Mr Yanukovych will now probably lead a coalition government under the presidency of his rival, Viktor Yushchenko. These developments, however, have been barely reported by most of the US media, let alone commented on. This silence marks a response to ideological and geopolitical embarrassment of which the old Soviet media might have been proud. It also misses an opportunity to conduct a searching public debate on US and western strategy in the former Soviet Union. For developments in and concerning Ukraine have contradicted an important assumption on which US and, to a lesser extent, European strategies have been based. They have demonstrated that the processes which the west has encouraged in central Europe and the Baltic states cannot be extended seamlessly to the former Soviet Union. Societies, economies and national identities and affinities are very different; links to Russia are closer; and both the US and the EU are weaker than appeared to be the case a few years ago. The failure of the Orange "revolution" is, in many ways, a great pity for Ukraine. Irrespective of whether Ukraine can join western institutions, westernising reform is a good thing in itself and should be pursued. But the latest developments have also saved Ukraine, Europe and, indeed, the US from a great danger. That danger was the prospect of early Nato enlargement to Ukraine, which until a few weeks ago was being pushed by powerful forces in Washington. This strategy is dead for the foreseeable future and we urgently need to develop an alternative one. The danger from Nato expansion was threefold: the certainty of Russian retaliation; the opposition of a large majority of Ukrainians, especially in the Russian-speaking east and south; and the fact that Nato membership was not going to be backed up by membership of the European Union, thereby anchoring that country in the west. At a conference on Ukraine in Rome in June, the majority of EU officials and west European diplomats declared EU membership for Ukraine to be an impossibility. Several expressed profound scepticism that even enhanced partnership would amount to anything serious. The reason was Ukraine's lack of development, but equally important was the revolt of west European electorates against further EU enlargement and its costs to the west European taxpayer. This in turn reflects the faltering west European economic growth of recent years. The engine of EU enlargement, which did most of the heavy lifting when it came to bringing the former communist states into the west, is close to the limits of its strength. We may regret these new circumstances, but we should also treat them as an opportunity for new thought. We have tended to treat as truly legitimate and democratic only those Ukrainian politicians who lead their country away from Russia - whether their electorate wants it or not. The divided affinities of Ukrainians are not a problem for us to solve, but a deeply rooted historical and democratic reality. The west and Russia should agree to avoid inflaming one or other Ukrainian grouping so far that it will risk violent clashes and regional destabilisation. For Russia, this means not intervening in Ukraine's democratic process. For the west, it means not trying to draw Ukraine into an anti-Russian alliance. Neither side should try to claim exclusive economic influence. If we are sensible, the result will be a Ukraine that is free, independent, neutral, open to international investment and economically tied to both Russia and the west. By all the standards of Ukrainian history, that would be a wonderful fate. The writer is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation. His next book, Ethical Realism: A Vision for America's Role in the World, co-authored with John Hulsman, is to be published by Pantheon in September Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006

---

советская империя утратила свой стиль раньше, чем потеряла свою власть

I could never get this "EU integration" idea. It sounded almost like "we will build communism...one day". Who would EVER let Ukraine into EU? I mean, even in the most heavily LSD induced "trip" could someone see "EUkraine"...

---

советская империя утратила свой стиль раньше, чем потеряла свою власть

criminals..

---

why not?.. poland, czech republic, hungry, maybe even serbia... why not ukrain?.. this is the only way to get a better life for the ukrainians... eventually

quote:

---

Originally posted by AHTOH: I could never get this "EU integration" idea. It sounded almost like "we will build communism...one day". Who would EVER let Ukraine into EU? I mean, even in the most heavily LSD induced "trip" could someone see "EUkraine"...

---

lyosha ****************** What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

---

lyosha
******************
What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

lol...nothing new from snake...poland and ukraine are on the same list, somehow...

---

советская империя утратила свой стиль раньше, чем потеряла свою власть

I agree w the article.. But as far as you guys - the truth is in the middle. As usual. Which is what the article is saying. If you thought you agreed w it before, read it again P.S. when compared to some of the other countries that are entering the EU, Ukraine has a much bigger economy, GDP, resources, skilled labor, and economic potential. The question is not whether they "belong" in the EU, the question is does the EU belong in the Ukraine at this point in time. And neither side seems to think so at this point in history. Probably a very smart decision. same with NATO. For now. ________________________________________ "не нужно навязывать себе своё мнение" -anonymous

---

________________________________________
"Я это понимаю на рациональном уровне, но не могу принять на эмоциональном" --Бизнесмен Борис Березовский

since ukrainian mentality has much more in common with europe then with russia - yes... the best place for the ukrain and ukrainians is in EU... russia is going nowhere (economically)...

quote:

---

Originally posted by AHTOH: lol...nothing new from snake...poland and ukraine are on the same list, somehow...

---

lyosha ****************** What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

---

lyosha
******************
What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

actually, i see current events in ukrain as a positive sign... they are having a "normal" democratic fight - parties are trying to form a coalition. elections are relatively free and fair. economics is slowly moving forward (and it is not based on oil/gas)... gas crises actually helped ukrain in the long run - they started to implement more energy-saving technologies... there are no wars going on on the ukrainian terrirories.. russians disciminated against... russian language is live and well (and all that russian propaganda is just bs)... aside from the baltic states, i see ukrain as the only republic in the former ussr as having a future.. russia will fall.. fall hard... belarus is a dirt poor hole... caucasian republics still cannot put down that "mountain fighting spirit"... asian republics are back to middle ages...

quote:

---

Originally posted by Egor: I agree w the article.. But as far as you guys - the truth is in the middle. As usual. Which is what the article is saying. If you thought you agreed w it before, read it again P.S. when compared to some of the other countries that are entering the EU, Ukraine has a much bigger economy, GDP, resources, skilled labor, and economic potential. The question is not whether they "belong" in the EU, the question is does the EU belong in the Ukraine at this point in time. And neither side seems to think so at this point in history. Probably a very smart decision. same with NATO. For now. ________________________________________ "не нужно навязывать себе своё мнение" -anonymous

---

lyosha ****************** What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

---

lyosha
******************
What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

quote:

---

Originally posted by snake: since ukrainian mentality has much more in common with europe then with russia -

---

?????????? how do you figure that? Slavic mentality is almost identical. Just read their media, forums, interets, culture They are the same people. Europeans are foreign to them both.

quote:

---

Originally posted by snake: russia is going nowhere (economically)...

---

another "???????????" fastest growing major economy in the world. ________________________________________ "не нужно навязывать себе своё мнение" -anonymous

---

________________________________________
"Я это понимаю на рациональном уровне, но не могу принять на эмоциональном" --Бизнесмен Борис Березовский

quote:

---

Originally posted by Egor:

quote:

---

Originally posted by snake: since ukrainian mentality has much more in common with europe then with russia -

---

?????????? how do you figure that? Slavic mentality is almost identical. Just read their media, forums, interets, culture They are the same people. Europeans are foreign to them both.

quote:

---

Originally posted by snake: russia is going nowhere (economically)...

---

another "???????????" fastest growing major economy in the world. ________________________________________ "не нужно навязывать себе своё мнение" -anonymous

---

Are you nuts, how can you even suggest such a thing - ukranians are wastly superrior to stupid russians. After all ancient ukry were roaming russian steppes long before romans built their Rome....

---

- Независимость - это когда в 20-й раз наступаешь на одни и те же грабли, а русские уже ни при чем....

have you ever drove across the border of russia-ukraine during the soviet times.. the difference was huge.. people are very different.. and i am not even talking about western ukraine.. as for the second "????????????".. russian economy is all oil... it is not wide enough.. and rate of oncrease is meaningless... the second oil prices drop or the second europe start buying more of the middle east oil - russia is going down.... plus, since russia re-mationalized oil/gas investments went down, modernization of the economy (oil economy) went down... another point, those oil $$$ are not invested into a greater economy...

quote:

---

Originally posted by Egor:

quote:

---

Originally posted by snake: since ukrainian mentality has much more in common with europe then with russia -

---

?????????? how do you figure that? Slavic mentality is almost identical. Just read their media, forums, interets, culture They are the same people. Europeans are foreign to them both.

quote:

---

Originally posted by snake: russia is going nowhere (economically)...

---

another "???????????" fastest growing major economy in the world.

---

lyosha ****************** What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

---

lyosha
******************
What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

it's like saying jews and arans are the same.. christians are foreign to them... i understand, hundreds of years of russian empiral eduaction taught everyone that the bigger brothers, russians, know better and everyone else should just imitate them... very interesting position... russians and ukrainian are indeed very different... they do live close by.. they mix.. ukrainian lived under russian rule for a long time... but they have very different mentalities (i am generalizing here)...

quote:

---

Originally posted by Egor: ?????????? how do you figure that? Slavic mentality is almost identical. Just read their media, forums, interets, culture They are the same people. Europeans are foreign to them both.

---

lyosha ****************** What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

---

lyosha
******************
What is freedom of expression? Without the freedom to offend, it ceases to exist.

I actually lived pretty close to the border and crossed all the time. And there was no difference. This border floated throughout recent history many times, so no difference was even possible. Rural people didn;t even know or care which side of the border they were in any given century :) Where did you cross the border that you are talking about? To Turkey? Just not sure what you mean, other than your border crossing incident.. What are the differences for real? I mean weighed against the differences with non-slavic europe? ________________________________________ "не нужно навязывать себе своё мнение" -anonymous

---

________________________________________
"Я это понимаю на рациональном уровне, но не могу принять на эмоциональном" --Бизнесмен Борис Березовский

I wonder... There's been several instances where I've had political conversations with Europeans. What I've noticed is that non-US people have no way of possibly following politics on the level that we follow it here (we = people like Anton, myself, Raspisdaichik, Egor, Snake, KGB, etc.). In Europe, they usually follow some very superficial news coverage. There's no way a European can hold his own in a heavy political debate about US issues. Likewise, I realize that there's no way I can really understand Russian politics while I am living here. Anything I do know is on a very superficial level. Therefore, if you all haven't noticed, I don't participate in topics about Russian business/politics. I don't know enough, so I keep my mouth shut. What I find stunning is that all of you, who live here in the US, seem to debate and argue as if you guys are living there. Surely there's no way for you to understand Russian politics on the same level as you understand US politics, considering that you live in the US. Now, I know that I've just hurt someone's pride with this post (though that was not my intention), but I really do want to know - do you all think you guys understand Russian politics on such a deep level? Is it even possible to be an 'expert' on Russian politics while living in the US? (of course, we could exclude political science professors specializing in Russian politics...I'm talking about the average Joe - like all of us here.)

---

quote:

---

Originally posted by snake: it's like saying jews and arans are the same.. christians are foreign to them... i understand, hundreds of years of russian empiral eduaction taught everyone that the bigger brothers, russians, know better and everyone else should just imitate them... very interesting position... russians and ukrainian are indeed very different... they do live close by.. they mix.. ukrainian lived under russian rule for a long time... but they have very different mentalities (i am generalizing here)...

---

I would understand if you came from some zakarpat'e.. they may be more polish-influenced.. Which are STILL closer to Russia than to European mentality. But you are from Kiev.. so elaborate... what differences? Between Kiev, and a russian city of similar size. In terms of culture. I don't even know if you are trying to be funny or are serious.. Maybe I should just let this go :) ________________________________________ "не нужно навязывать себе своё мнение" -anonymous

---

________________________________________
"Я это понимаю на рациональном уровне, но не могу принять на эмоциональном" --Бизнесмен Борис Березовский